Executive Summary

Q4 revenue reached $317.5M (+6.9% YoY), with Adjusted EBITDA of $47.4M (+6.2% YoY). Full-year FY24 revenue was $1.231B and Adjusted EBITDA $189.1M, both records .
Net income declined 47.5% YoY to $8.4M in Q4, driven by higher “other expenses,” interest expense, and tax, despite solid top-line and EBITDA growth .
Strategic expansion executed: Louisiana route acquisition closed Nov 1 (expected ~$6M 2025 EBITDA) and Fairmount (Collinsville, IL) closed Dec 2; Phase 1 casino opening targeted for Q2 2025; Phase 2 by end of 2027 .
Capital allocation catalyst: Board replenished the share repurchase authorization back to $200M; Q4 buybacks totaled ~$4M; FY24 buybacks ~$25M .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Record revenue and Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 and FY24 underscore resilient local gaming demand; Illinois, Montana, and Nebraska posted healthy hold-per-day growth in Q4 .
- Expansion milestones on track: Louisiana integrated in Q4 with $979 hold-per-day and expected ~$6M 2025 EBITDA; Fairmount Phase 1 casino planned for Q2 2025 with long-term upside (full-run $20–$25M EBITDA; temp ~1/3) .
- Portfolio optimization: Ongoing pruning of underperformers to lift FCF per location and returns; management emphasized rotating assets to higher-return accounts and “choiceful” allocation. “We have identified a subset of locations within our bottom decile performers that we will phase out over coming quarters” .
What Went Wrong
- GAAP profitability compressed: Q4 net income fell 47.5% YoY to $8.4M as “other expenses, net,” interest expense, and tax increased YoY despite higher revenue and Adjusted EBITDA .
- Nevada softness persisted (Q4 hold-per-day -6.7% YoY), reflecting local market supply increases; management has cited this headwind since mid-2024 .
- Illinois unit count flat-to-down near term as tax and wage pressures catalyze pruning; growth remains more mix/quality-driven, potentially muting near-term location count momentum even as profitability per site improves .

Financial Results

Metric	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Thousands)	$309,000	$302,227	$317,515
Net Income ($USD Millions)	$15	$4.9	$8.4
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Thousands)	$50,000	$45,880	$47,355

Notes: Q4 revenue up 6.9% YoY (vs $297,068K); Adjusted EBITDA up 6.2% YoY (vs $44,577K) . Adjusted EBITDA margin for Q4 implied ~15% per investor materials .

Segment revenue breakdown (Q4 YoY):

Geography	Q4 2023 Revenue ($USD Thousands)	Q4 2024 Revenue ($USD Thousands)
Illinois	$219,297	$231,278
Montana	$39,314	$41,326
Nevada	$29,241	$27,670
Nebraska	$5,830	$6,763
Louisiana (2 months)	—	$5,445
Other	$3,386	$5,033
Total	$297,068	$317,515

KPIs:

KPI	Q4 2023	Q4 2024
Locations (year-end)	3,961	4,117
Gaming Terminals (year-end)	25,083	26,346
IL Hold-per-day (Q4)	$839	$868
MT Hold-per-day (Q4)	$587	$614
NV Hold-per-day (Q4)	$842	$786
NE Hold-per-day (Q4)	$239	$253
LA Hold-per-day (Q4)	—	$979

Balance sheet and cash returns:

Net debt at 12/31/24: $314.1M .
Q4 buybacks: ~$4.0M; FY24 buybacks ~$25M; authorization replenished to $200M on 2/27/25 .

Estimates vs actuals:

S&P Global consensus estimates for Q4 2024 were unavailable at time of analysis due to data access limits; therefore, we cannot provide a vs-consensus comparison for revenue/EPS/EBITDA. Values would be retrieved from S&P Global if accessible.

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
CapEx (company-wide)	FY2025	n/a	$75–$80M; ~$39–$41M core, $5–$7M LA, $31–$32M Fairmount (Phase 1 plus initial Phase 2)	New
Normalized CapEx	Post-Fairmount initial	“Compressing down towards ~$40M” (steady state)	Return to $40–$45M after Fairmount and initial LA	Fine-tuned/maintained
Buyback authorization	Ongoing	$200M program (substantial usage through FY24)	Replenished back to $200M on 2/27/25	Increased capacity
Fairmount Phase 1 opening	Q2 2025 target	Q2 2025 (prior)	Reiterated Q2 2025	Maintained
Fairmount full-run EBITDA	Long-term	$20–$25M (prior)	Reiterated; temp casino ~1/3 of full-run, prorated for mid-Q2 opening	Maintained (clarified temp)
Louisiana EBITDA	FY2025	n/a	~+$6M EBITDA (full-year)	New
TITO in Illinois	2025	H1’25 expected (prior)	“Hopeful” for 2025 rollout	Timing broadened

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q2 & Q3 2024)	Current Period (Q4 2024)	Trend
TITO (ticket-in/ticket-out)	Expected rollout in next 18 months; targeted H1’25	“Hopeful” for 2025; expected to improve convenience and efficiency	Timing slightly broadened; still a 2025 catalyst
Portfolio pruning in IL	Initiated pruning bottom decile; tax increase accelerated closures	Continued pruning (16 closures in Q4; 54 FY24); focus on FCF per location, ROIC	Ongoing mix upgrade to lift returns
Nevada competitive supply	Modest declines due to supply increases	Q4 hold-per-day -6.7% YoY	Headwind persists
Nebraska growth	Strong growth via higher hold-per-day; product mix upgrades	Q4 hold-per-day +5.9% YoY	Positive trajectory
M&A pipeline	Active with local gaming adjacencies	Continued activity; Louisiana closed; Fairmount closed	Executing on identified adjacencies
Louisiana expansion	Pending update by year-end (Q3 call)	Closed; ~$6M 2025 EBITDA; significant hold-per-day	New growth leg integrating well
Fairmount Racino	Acquisition announced; Phase 1 plan Q2’25; $20–$25M full-run EBITDA	Closed Dec 2; Phase 1 opening Q2’25; Phase 2 by end-’27	On schedule; multi-year EBITDA ramp
Capital allocation	Emphasis on repurchases within $200M program	Authorization replenished to $200M; low leverage enables growth + returns	Enhanced buyback capacity
Regulatory/iGaming	Monitoring; educate on route vs iGaming trade-offs	iGaming traction not imminent in route markets; continued monitoring	Neutral; continued watch

Management Commentary

Strategy and growth algorithm: “We target low single-digit revenue growth, mid-single-digit EBITDA growth and high single-digit free cash flow growth…” .
Portfolio optimization: “We strategically closed 54 underperforming locations” in FY24 to rightsize after the 1% Illinois tax increase; focus is on improving cash flow and returns via asset rotation .
Louisiana: “You should add [~$6M of EBITDA]” in 2025; Louisiana markets remain fragmented with significant upgrade opportunities (older legacy equipment in bars) .
Fairmount: Phase 1 in Q2’25; Phase 2 by end-’27; “full run Fairmount…$25 million of EBITDA,” temp ~1/3 of that .
Capital allocation: “Our Board… authorized replenishing our share repurchase program back to $200 million” while maintaining low leverage .

Notable quotes:

“I’m pleased to report we had another record-setting year with total revenue of $1.2 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $189 million” .
“Across our footprint, we continue to refine our sales and operating model, focusing on the highest hold per day locations” .
“We expect [TITO] will be rolled out in 2025” .

Q&A Highlights

2025 contributions: Louisiana ~$6M EBITDA; Fairmount temp ~1/3 of $25M annual full-run, prorated from mid-Q2 opening .
Illinois pruning vs growth: pruning of bottom decile locations is ongoing and not tied to growth cadence; expect visible average profitability improvement later 2025 into 2026 .
E-pull tabs: interesting category but content-driven; Accel would need a strong content partner to participate .
Legislative outlook: iGaming not gaining traction in route-heavy markets near term (e.g., IL, NV) .
Early Q1 demand: favorable January weather in IL aided demand; February weather less favorable vs prior year; early positive signs from Louisiana remodels and new products .

Estimates Context

We attempted to retrieve S&P Global (Capital IQ) consensus for Q4 2024 (revenue, EPS, EBITDA) but were unable to access due to a daily request limit. As a result, a vs-consensus comparison is not included. Values would be retrieved from S&P Global when available.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Execution + expansion: ACEL posted record revenue/Adj. EBITDA while closing Louisiana and Fairmount, adding a second growth engine (racino) alongside core routes .
Mix upgrades should support returns: deliberate pruning in IL, upgrades in LA/NE, and focus on high hold-per-day locations should lift FCF per site and ROIC through 2025–2026 .
Near-term catalysts: Q2’25 Fairmount Phase 1 opening; potential Illinois TITO rollout in 2025; Louisiana ramp; replenished $200M buyback .
Watch Nevada: continued supply-driven pressure on locals market remains a headwind for same-store metrics there .
Margin/frame: Adjusted EBITDA growth outpaced revenue in Q4, with investor materials implying ~15% Adj. EBITDA margin; sustained mix optimization and normalization of CapEx post-Fairmount should bolster FCF .
Guidance visibility: 2025 CapEx guide ($75–$80M) includes Fairmount and LA; normalized CapEx set to return to $40–$45M after initial build-outs, a tailwind to FCF .

Appendix: Other Q4-relevant press releases

Louisiana expansion completed (Toucan Gaming acquisition) on Nov 1, 2024: ~$25M revenue and ~$6M Adj. EBITDA expected in 2025; added significant terminals across truck stops and 3-machine locations .
Fairmount closing on Dec 2, 2024: five-year outlook $20–$25M Adj. EBITDA with >75% FCF conversion; Phase 1 casino Q2’25; Phase 2 by end-’27 .

Sources:

Q4 2024 press release and exhibits (8-K Item 2.02):
Q4 2024 earnings call transcript:
Q3 2024 press release and call:
Q2 2024 call:

Accel Entertainment, Inc. (ACEL)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary